February 17, 2004

Night tremors

Cingular's people used the clock to snatch AT&T Wireless from the jaws of Vodafone as this article in today's NYTimes Cingular's $41 Billion Offer Wins Bidding for AT&T Wireless describes. They literally made a take-it-or-leave-it offer in the middle of the night in North America, while the Vodafone team slept in London. [Question: What kind of M&A team doing a $35B deal doesn't have feet on the ground? ed.] Well, whatever will be . . .

As almost everyone with a passing interest has been saying for a year or more, it was overdue. Consolidation was inevitable. Here's a snip from the NYTimes piece:

The sale to Cingular is the first sign of long promised consolidation in an industry that has suffered from overcrowding. While the deal will likely help the profitability of industry -- Cingular estimates the combination will save them as much as $15 billion -- it may mean higher prices for consumers in the long term and thousands of layoffs of overlapping positions at both AT&T Wireless and Cingular.

Still, the intensity of the ultra competitive landscape has been a mixed blessing for consumers. They have gotten lower prices and rich incentives for signing up with a wireless provider. But the effort by competitors to rapidly deploy their networks to fulfill the demand has often led to poor service quality and shoddy customer care.

Well, we'll see what happens. With two monsters (Verisign at 24% and Cingular -- with AT&T -- at 30% market share) and a bunch of also-rans (Sprint 10%; T-Mobile 9%; Nextel 8%), probably less price cutting and deal offering. But let's none of us hold our breath waiting for better customer care or service quality. And, large mergers/acquisitions have historically tended to dissipated value before they create any.

Still, it's a good thing for anyone supplying the industry or needing a coherent group for delivery of one's service to the end user. ;-)

Posted by Grayson at February 17, 2004 08:01 AM